Afghanistan: Back on the front burner

Sometimes I hardly know where to begin.

I've got a "Frontline" special -- "Obama's War" -- on the TV right now, so I'm listening to all this analysis from military aides and government officials retracing the multiple challenges we face in trying to figure out our next moves in Afghanistan and, now, possibly Pakistan.

I've got Frank Rich's most recent Sunday column in The New York Times -- "Two Wrongs Make Another Fiasco" -- in mind as I sit down to the computer.

And I'm cognizant of the fact that a major health care reform bill cleared the Senate Finance Committee today, with a single Republican contributing to the 14-9 vote, even as the health insurance industry began running TV ads in six states aimed at undermining support for the historic legislation.

So while I should be celebrating Maine Senator Olympia Snowe's courage in crossing party lines, along with the fact that the health care reform bill has now advanced further than any similar legislation in a generation, instead I'm infuriated by the callousness and cowardice of the health insurance industry in trying to sabotage the reform efforts. It's not surprising at all that they'd step out of the shadows at the 11th hour, with millions upon millions to spend on negative advertising.

As important as that issue is, this week I'm thinking more about Afghanistan and hoping the White House will emerge with a plan that makes sense out of a nonsensical situation. I'm sympathetic to the notion that we need to fight this war, and maybe even ramp up our troop levels there, in order to keep the Taliban in check. But when I read that the Taliban have become less of a threat than al-Qaida, and I already know that the real terrorists have set up in the mountainous regions of Pakistan, near the Afghan border, I have second thoughts. If we're serious about neutralizing al-Qaida, shouldn't we and our Pakistani allies be going after them there, despite the diplomatic hard feelings this would create?

I don't know that nation-building is a very realistic goal -- at least not one that I expect could be achieved in my lifetime. Afghanistan is simply a very, very different place, with a long history of official corruption, tribal governance, illiteracy and poverty, and a forbidding terrain that makes communication difficult and the goal of a strong, effective central government nothing more than a pipe dream. It's almost as if we think doing a fashion makeover on someone might somehow fundamentally change their values and behavior. Ain't gonna happen.

I'll close this post with a spot-on quote from Frank Rich's brilliant column of Oct. 11. In it, he holds accountable those hawks who got us into Afghanistan and now are pressuring Obama to turn up the heat, so we can "win" -- though no one seems able to define how "victory" would look.

Perhaps the most surreal aspect of our great Afghanistan debate is the Beltway credence given to the ravings of the unrepentant blunderers who dug us into this hole in the first place.

Let’s be clear: Those who demanded that America divert its troops and treasure from Afghanistan to Iraq in 2002 and 2003 — when there was no Qaeda presence in Iraq — bear responsibility for the chaos in Afghanistan that ensued. Now they have the nerve to imperiously and tardily demand that America increase its 68,000-strong presence in Afghanistan to clean up their mess — even though the number of Qaeda insurgents there has dwindled to fewer than 100, according to the president’s national security adviser, Gen. James Jones.

But why let facts get in the way? Just as these hawks insisted that Iraq was “the central front in the war on terror” when the central front was Afghanistan, so they insist that Afghanistan is the central front now that it has migrated to Pakistan. When the day comes for them to anoint Pakistan as the central front, it will be proof positive that Al Qaeda has consolidated its hold on Somalia and Yemen.

To appreciate this crowd’s spotless record of failure, consider its noisiest standard-bearer, John McCain. He made every wrong judgment call that could be made after 9/11. It’s not just that he echoed the Bush administration’s constant innuendos that Iraq collaborated with Al Qaeda’s attack on America. Or that he hyped the faulty W.M.D. evidence to the hysterical extreme of fingering Iraq for the anthrax attacks in Washington. Or that he promised we would win the Iraq war “easily.” Or that he predicted that the Sunnis and the Shiites would “probably get along” in post-Saddam Iraq because there was “not a history of clashes” between them.

What’s more mortifying still is that McCain was just as wrong about Afghanistan and Pakistan. He routinely minimized or dismissed the growing threats in both countries over the past six years, lest they draw American resources away from his pet crusade in Iraq.

Take 10 minutes to read Rich's piece. Then think about what advice you'd give Obama at this point.

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